The mortgage market this week: the Fed holds, rates slip to a one-month low

Mortgage rates fell again this week. Freddie Mac’s weekly survey, published on Thursday, showed the national average lower than the week before for the third week running, and a daily index of lenders’ rates ended Friday at its low point for the past month or so. The Federal Reserve left its policy rate unchanged on Wednesday, and that meeting barely moved mortgage rates. The move came instead on Thursday and Friday, when worries about the tech sector sent investors into bonds. Next week brings the October jobs report and the Treasury’s quarterly borrowing announcement.

What moved rates this week

Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey (opens in a new tab), published on Thursdays, put the average 30-year fixed rate at 7.24% and the average 15-year fixed rate at 6.60%, down from 7.32% and 6.68% the week before. National average from Freddie Mac, October 29, 2026. Not Fidelity Residential’s rate and not an offer of credit.

The daily picture was quiet at first and then turned. Mortgage News Daily reported that its index held steady on Monday and Tuesday, just above its recent lows, and moved modestly higher on Wednesday (opens in a new tab) with no help or harm from the Fed. On Thursday the index dipped to a new multi-week low (opens in a new tab), and on Friday it ended the week at its lows (opens in a new tab), a level last seen in late September.

The Fed held, and the bond market shrugged

The Federal Reserve met on Tuesday and Wednesday and left its target range for the federal funds rate unchanged (opens in a new tab). Its statement described the economy as expanding at a strong pace and inflation as still elevated, and two members voted against the decision because they preferred an increase.

Mortgage rates follow the bond market, not the Fed’s announcement. The Treasury’s daily yield table (opens in a new tab) shows the 10-year yield flat on Monday and Tuesday, a little higher on Wednesday after the Fed, and then lower on Thursday and again on Friday, finishing the week below where it started. Mortgage News Daily’s Friday bond recap (opens in a new tab) tied the late-week rally to the tech sector: weak guidance in several large technology companies’ earnings reports on Thursday, and news on Friday about a large AI company’s likely borrowing costs. When money leaves tech stocks and moves into bonds, yields fall, and mortgage rates tend to follow.

The week’s data releases did less than the headlines did. The Census Bureau’s September new home sales report (opens in a new tab) on Tuesday showed sales little changed from August, extending a sideways trend. The first estimate of third-quarter GDP and September’s personal income and spending report came out on Thursday, and the third-quarter Employment Cost Index on Friday. Rates fell after each of them, but the bond recaps credit the tech news, not the data, for most of the move.

What it means if you are buying or refinancing

The question I heard most this week was whether the Fed holding steady meant mortgage rates would hold too. This week answered it: the Fed stood still, and mortgage rates fell anyway. The two are connected, but loosely, and the day-to-day moves come from the bond market. I explain the mechanics in what the Fed does, and does not do, to mortgage rates.

For a buyer, three weeks of a falling national average can make a monthly budget stretch a little further than it did at the start of October, but the loan amount, the down payment and your credit still shape the payment more than any weekly move. Our guide Buy Now or Wait: The Honest Math walks through how to think about it. If you already own and are weighing a refinance, compare the total cost over the years you expect to keep the loan, not just the rate. The refinance calculator can help with that. I do not know where rates go from here, and nobody else does either.

What to watch next week

These are scheduled releases, not forecasts:

• Construction spending for September, from the Census Bureau (opens in a new tab), on Monday, November 2.
• The Treasury’s quarterly financing estimates on Monday, November 2, and its refunding announcement (opens in a new tab) on Wednesday, November 4, which set how much longer-term debt it plans to sell.
• International trade for September, from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (opens in a new tab) and the Census Bureau, on Wednesday, November 4.
• Freddie Mac’s next weekly survey, on Thursday, November 5.
• The October jobs report, from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (opens in a new tab), on Friday, November 6.

Frequently asked questions

Is the Freddie Mac average the rate I would get?

No. It is a national average for a set borrower profile, not a quote. Your own rate depends on your credit, the loan amount, the property and other factors, and on the day you get it. A licensed loan officer can walk you through what applies to you.

The Fed did not cut. Why did mortgage rates fall?

Because mortgage rates track longer-term bond yields, and those yields fell late in the week as investors moved money out of tech stocks and into bonds. The Fed sets a short-term rate, which is a different thing, as I cover in what moves mortgage rates.

When does the Fed meet next?

Its last scheduled meeting of the year is on Tuesday, December 8, and Wednesday, December 9, per the Fed’s calendar (opens in a new tab). Between now and then, the bond market reacts to the data as it arrives, starting with next Friday’s jobs report.

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