The mortgage market this week: a strong jobs report, rates hold near lows

Mortgage rates ended the week close to their low point since late September, and they did so on a day when you might have expected the opposite. The October jobs report on Friday came in far stronger than expected, which normally pushes rates up, yet the daily rate index held flat. Freddie Mac’s weekly survey, published on Thursday, showed the national average lower than the week before for the third week running. Much of the downward pressure this autumn has come from a sell-off in technology stocks, which has sent money into bonds.

What moved rates this week

Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey (opens in a new tab), published on Thursdays, put the average 30-year fixed rate at 7.18% and the average 15-year fixed rate at 6.57%, down from 7.24% and 6.60% the week before. National average from Freddie Mac, November 5, 2026. Not Fidelity Residential’s rate and not an offer of credit.

The daily picture was mixed. Mortgage News Daily reported that its index edged higher on Tuesday (opens in a new tab) after a report showed job openings at their highest in four months. Bonds then rallied on Wednesday as technology stocks kept falling, and the index moved under a level it had held above for weeks (opens in a new tab) on Thursday. On Friday it held steady (opens in a new tab) at its low point since September 22.

The jobs report that did not move rates

Friday’s employment report showed a large jump in hiring. Rates usually rise when job growth beats expectations, because a strong economy makes bond investors want higher yields. This time they did not, and Mortgage News Daily called the reaction paradoxical (opens in a new tab). Its explanations were that markets cared more about the unemployment rate than the hiring count, that the Federal Reserve has said it is focused mainly on inflation, that bonds were still taking their cues from worries about technology stocks, and that investors were still digesting this week’s election results.

I would not read much into one day. A report that surprises this much and still leaves rates unchanged tells you the bond market is weighing several things at once. Earlier in the week, oil prices fell sharply (opens in a new tab) and several technology-linked stocks hit new lows, and bonds gained alongside them. The Treasury’s quarterly borrowing estimates on Monday, which were higher than projected in May (opens in a new tab), took some of the shine off that day’s bond gains.

What it means if you are buying or refinancing

The question I heard most this week was whether a hot jobs report means rates are about to jump. It did not on the day, and that is a useful reminder that no single report decides where rates go. They respond to the whole mix of news, and the mix changes daily.

For a buyer, rates near their late-September levels can make a monthly budget stretch a little further than it did a month ago, but the loan amount, the down payment and your credit still shape the payment more than a weekly move does. Our guide Buy Now or Wait: The Honest Math walks through how to think about it. If you already own and are weighing a refinance, compare the total cost over the years you expect to keep the loan, not just the rate. The refinance calculator can help. I do not know where rates go from here, and nobody else does either. If a move in rates changes your plans, a licensed loan officer can talk through your own situation.

What to watch next week

These are scheduled events, not forecasts:

• Veterans Day on Wednesday, November 11, a federal holiday.
• Freddie Mac’s next weekly survey, on Thursday, November 12.

Frequently asked questions

Is the Freddie Mac average the rate I would get?

No. It is a national average for a set borrower profile, not a quote. Your own rate depends on your credit, the loan amount, the property and other factors, and on the day you get it. A licensed loan officer can walk you through what applies to you.

Why did rates not rise after a strong jobs report?

Rates follow the bond market, which weighs many things at once. This week the pull from falling technology stocks and lower oil prices was strong enough to offset the jobs news, as I cover in what moves mortgage rates.

Why does the stock market affect mortgage rates?

When investors sell stocks and buy bonds, bond yields fall, and mortgage rates tend to follow. The link is loose and can change from week to week, so it is a clue to what happened, not a way to predict what comes next.

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